Copenhagen 2009: Our last chance?

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Source: Richard Barr

So, when is our next big “Yes We Can” party?  It’s that time when we all get to be idealists for a few weeks as we ponder whether the world’s global powers will do what it takes to slow global warming -- or whether they will waste yet another opportunity to do the right thing.

In 2012, the Kyoto Protocol to prevent climate changes and global warming runs out. To keep the process on line there is an urgent need for a new climate protocol. At the conference in Copenhagen 2009 the parties of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) meet for the last time on a government level before the climate agreements need to be renewed.

Is it too much to wish for minor miracles?  The Climate Conference in Copenhagen is essential for dealing with the world’s climate change. The Danish government and UNFCCC is working hard to make the meeting in Copenhagen (in December 2009) a success ending up with a Copenhagen Protocol to prevent global warming and climate changes.

Governmental representatives from 170 countries are expected to be in Copenhagen in the days of the conference, accompanied by other governmental representatives, NGO's, journalists and others. In total 8,000 people are expected to be in Copenhagen for the days of the climate meeting.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based in Geneva, Switzerland, provides an important part of the scientific background for the political decisions taken in the conferences. The IPCC was established to provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about the topic. IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). In 2007 the IPCC received the Nobel Peace Price along with former Vice President and 2000 Presidential candidate Al Gore).

Will the USA Pass an Energy Plan?

 By the time December rolls around let’s hope the President’s comprehensive energy legislation has been passed.  This legislation, along with dealing with health care, has been promised this year…but it’s a tall order.  Recent opinion polls have shown that climate change is low on a list of concerns of people sampled in these polls -- so grass roots noise from constituents is really going to be needed to make this happen. 

As expected, some of these constituents who must speak out are the same people that started buying SUVs again when gas went back down to $2 a gallon.  According to The Wall Street Journal:  “Demand for hybrid vehicles is in the doldrums. Toyota Prius sales are down 49.5% for the Jan. 1 to April 30 period, and Toyota has been offering discounts on the model to clear inventory ahead of the launch this month of a redesigned 2010 Prius. Honda sold just 2,096 of its new Insight hybrids in April, the first full month after its formal launch. Honda Civic hybrid sales are down 26% for the year, and at the current pace will struggle to crack 30,000 vehicles for the year -- a pittance even in today's depressed market.” Source: WSJ May 5, 2009

 Who are these people …and do you detect a tone of arrogance in my voice?  Many of us say it in the privacy of our own homes…even more of us think it…but, it is not politically correct to say out loud: “People are stupid.”  Sometimes they get the big things right – like the 2008 election of Barack Obama.  But basically, most people are short-term thinkers and are understandably driven by economic concerns at the expense of the environment.  People will also get climate change right -- but by the time they do it will be too late.  So it is incumbent upon those of us and our leaders who see the clear and present danger to do what’s necessary to stave off environmental Armageddon.

Who Takes Responsibility?

The great question that will be asked at the conference is this:  What is the developed world’s responsibility in matters of climate change?  It’s true – the old colonial powers and the United States of America are responsible for raising carbon levels to the danger point.  China and India are rapidly making up for lost time and feel the threat of political turmoil should their growth rates dip too much.  The rest of the world -- like  Brazil, Japan and other countries on the verge of “developed status” -- seem eager to play a constructive roll in the coming process.

Around the world, other governments aren't shy about pushing consumers toward certain choices. China has encouraged consumers to buy more-efficient cars by recently halving the purchase taxes levied on vehicles equipped with engines smaller than 1.6 liters displacement, while sharply increasing taxes assessed on cars with engine displacements larger than 3.0 liters. The result has been a surge in sales of smaller cars with smaller engines -- just what the government wanted.

Europe uses high fuel taxes and other means to push consumers to pay higher prices for smaller vehicles. Fiat SpA, Chrysler's new industrial partner, sells a cuddly little minicar called the Fiat 500 that is selling well.

Earlier this week, and not a moment too soon, President Obama put the weight of his office behind a bill that aims to reduce the nation’s dependence on foreign oil, tackle the rise in greenhouse gases and create millions of clean-energy jobs.

The bill has been mired in a House committee: Opposed by all Republicans along with fears by rust belt Democrats who think it will hurt manufacturers.  Not to be left out, environmentalists are suspicious that it offers too many loopholes.

The thrust of the bill is an effort to reduce greenhouse gases (GhGs) by 20 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 and 83 percent by 2050 — cuts scientists say are necessary to avert the worst consequences of global warming. The mechanism for achieving them is a cap-and-trade system that would place a steadily declining ceiling on emissions while allowing emitters to trade permits, or allowances, to give them more flexibility in meeting their targets. This would put a price on carbon, ideally raising the cost of older, dirtier fuels while steering investment to cleaner ones.  Make no mistake; pricing carbon will be one of the most important events at the Copenhagen conference.

But, again, the really big question is how developed countries will own the destruction they have wrought on the environment since the industrial revolution while, at the same time, getting the rest of the world to cooperate regardless of the condition of their economies.  While 170 countries will be there, the focus will be on China and India whose economies, over the next forty years and beyond, are poised to wreck havoc on our atmosphere.  The mindset that the green revolution must necessarily be a drain on growth rates around the world must be defeated.  In fact, it must be seen that green economies are really the only sound path to global growth.  A sharing of European and American technologies must also be liberally applied to all countries seeking assistance. 

Our Last Great Change to Avert Calamity

I really see this gathering as our last great chance to avert, not climatic calamity – it’s going to happen regardless of what we do – but as global Armageddon at a slow and agonizing pace.  Let’s hope President Obama can use his great communication skills to convince the American public that they must seize the day.

There is some cause for hope on the corporate scene.  CEOs of some of the world's largest companies are urging global leaders to cut a strong deal this December to curb pollution, saying they need certainty on emissions targets to be able to make long-term investment decisions.

 Business leaders said they were working on a draft statement that would call for emissions to be cut by at least 50 percent by 2050, an ambitious target also endorsed by the U.N.

According to Guy Chazan at The Wall Street Journal, speakers at the business meeting said: “A new deal with global targets will be crucial in creating a level playing field, especially for energy-intensive industries. Failure, they warned, lead to a free-for-all and "green protectionism" -- where industries in countries with tough rules would lose out to rivals in countries with less strict policies.”

There is no time to waste – and that will be ever true in December in Copenhagen!

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Richard Barr -Featured columnist recently transitioned out of a 20-year career as a social investment advisor with First Affirmative Financial Network.  He is an Accredited Investment Fiduciary (University  of Pittsburgh) and is now a commentator for the Governance and Accountability Institute.

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